When President Donald Trump announced escalating military operations against Venezuela, the official story was straightforward: a war on drugs. The administration claimed Venezuela was a major source of cocaine and fentanyl flowing into the United States, and that military action was necessary to protect American citizens from the narcotics crisis.
But the data tells a different story entirely. Behind the drug war rhetoric lies a far more complex geopolitical calculation involving oil, empire, and a desperate attempt to contain China’s growing influence in Latin America. Understanding what’s really happening in Venezuela requires looking past the headlines and examining the actual facts.
The Oil Motivation: 300 Billion Barrels
Venezuela sits atop the world’s largest proven oil reserves. According to 2023 estimates, the country possesses approximately 303 billion barrels of crude oil—more than Saudi Arabia’s 267 billion barrels 1. The vast majority of these reserves are located in the Orinoco Belt, a region containing an estimated 235 to 1,400 billion barrels of heavy crude oil 2.
This is not coincidental to Trump’s sudden interest in regime change. A US-backed government in Venezuela would open these reserves to American oil companies. As Republican congresswoman Maria Salazar stated, regime change in Venezuela would result in a “field day” for US oil companies 3. The US Gulf Coast has refineries specifically equipped to process Venezuela’s heavy crude, making it economically valuable to American energy interests.
The drug war narrative conveniently obscures this economic motivation. It’s far easier to sell military intervention to the American public as a public health measure than as an oil grab—even if the oil grab is the primary driver.
The Drug War Narrative is a Fraud
The Trump administration’s claims about Venezuela as a major drug threat do not withstand scrutiny. According to data from the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) and the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), the actual drug trafficking picture looks very different from what the administration claims.
Colombia, not Venezuela, is the world’s leading cocaine producer. The UNODC estimates that approximately 90% of cocaine entering the United States is produced in Colombia 4. While Venezuela does serve as a transit point for some cocaine destined for Europe, it is neither the primary producer nor the dominant trafficking actor.
For fentanyl—the drug responsible for the vast majority of overdose deaths in America—the connection to Venezuela is even more tenuous. According to Al Jazeera’s analysis of DEA and State Department data, “The fentanyl crisis that claims the most American lives has hardly any connection to Caracas” 5. Instead, the DEA and State Department consistently identify Mexico, specifically the Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation cartels, as the manufacturing hub for synthetic opioids, utilizing precursors imported from China 5.
In March 2020, the US government itself estimated that between 200 and 250 tonnes of cocaine were trafficked through Venezuela annually, representing just 13 percent of estimated global production 5. This is a significant amount, but hardly the existential threat the Trump administration portrays.
Most damning of all: the Trump administration has not provided any evidence that the 83+ people killed in US military strikes were actually involved in drug trafficking 5. These appear to be extrajudicial executions—summary killings without arrest, trial, or legal process—conducted to manufacture a pretext for war.
The Real Motive: Containing China
The fourth clip in our analysis contains an admission that reveals the true geopolitical calculation. An intelligence official states: “This build up in the Caribbean is as much about China and Russia as it is about Venezuela” 6. He continues, explaining that the US has “left our neighborhood unguarded” due to its focus on the War on Terror, and now must “keep nefarious actors out,” including “China and Russia.”
This is the confession. The drug war is the cover story. The real story is that the United States is a declining imperial power attempting to maintain its dominance in a region where it is rapidly losing influence.
China has become South America’s top trading partner. In 2024, bilateral trade between China and Latin America and the Caribbean reached $518.47 billion 7. For countries like Brazil, China’s trade volume now exceeds that of the United States by more than two to one 8. China is not just a trading partner; it is a major source of foreign direct investment and infrastructure financing through its Belt and Road Initiative.
In Venezuela specifically, China has loaned approximately $60 billion to the country—more than any other nation in the world 9. These loans have primarily funded energy and infrastructure projects, giving China significant economic leverage over Venezuela’s future. Unlike US loans, which come with demands for regime change and democratic reforms, Chinese loans come with no political strings attached.
From the perspective of Latin American countries, China offers a path to development without the threat of invasion. The United States, by contrast, has a 170-year history of military interventions in the region, from the Mexican-American War to the Bay of Pigs to the 2009 Honduras coup. For countries choosing between the two, the choice is increasingly obvious.
Why the US Military Will Fail
If the Trump administration does attempt a full-scale invasion of Venezuela, the data suggests it will be a catastrophic failure on the scale of Vietnam or Iraq.
Scale and Complexity: Venezuela is not Grenada or Panama, the two Latin American countries invaded by the US during the Cold War. It is twice the size of Iraq with a comparable population. Military analysts estimate that an invasion would require a force of over 100,000 troops just to establish initial control 10. The US currently has 25,000 troops, sailors, and Marines in the region—insufficient by any reasonable military standard.
Public Opposition: A February 2025 poll showed that a majority of Venezuelans oppose a US military invasion, including a plurality of those in Venezuela’s opposition 10. A US military presence would validate Maduro’s loudly proclaimed imperialist conspiracies and turn the US into an occupying force rather than a liberator.
Infrastructure Collapse: Venezuela’s electricity grids, sewage systems, hospitals, schools, and other basic infrastructure are decimated 10. Rebuilding the nation would be a prolonged process requiring years of occupation and billions in reconstruction spending.
Armed Resistance: Approximately 100,000 Venezuelans are armed and loosely organized into “colectivos” that are likely to go rogue if the government collapses 10. Combined with narco-traffickers who have made Venezuela a main transit point, and enduring political divisions with no cohesive government in waiting, the US would face a prolonged guerrilla war.
Historical Precedent: The Vietnam War resulted in 58,000 American deaths and hundreds of thousands of wounded, many permanently disabled 6. The 20-year war in Afghanistan cost trillions and ended in humiliating defeat. The Iraq War, launched on false pretenses, destabilized an entire region and created the conditions for ISIS. These are not ancient history; they are recent cautionary tales that should inform current policy.
The Extrajudicial Killing Campaign
Perhaps most troubling is the Trump administration’s conduct in the lead-up to a potential invasion. Over the past several months, the US military has conducted approximately 20-22 strikes on alleged “drug boats” in Venezuelan waters, killing at least 83 people 5.
The administration has provided no evidence that these boats were involved in drug trafficking. There were no arrests, no trials, no due process. Just death sentences carried out by the US military on the high seas. This constitutes potential war crimes under international law 5.
As one analyst noted, the previous procedure was to interdict, inspect, and arrest suspected drug traffickers. Now, it is simply execution. This is not law enforcement; it is state-sponsored murder used to manufacture a pretext for war.
The Broader Pattern of Imperial Decline
What we are witnessing with Venezuela is not a unique aberration but a pattern consistent with a declining imperial power. The United States, facing the reality of a multipolar world where it no longer dominates, is lashing out militarily to try and maintain its hegemony.
The Monroe Doctrine, announced in 1823, asserted that the Western Hemisphere was the exclusive sphere of US influence. For nearly 200 years, this doctrine held. But in the 21st century, it is increasingly irrelevant. China has invested more in Latin America than the US. Countries in the region are making rational economic decisions to deepen ties with Beijing rather than Washington.
Rather than accepting this new reality and competing on economic and diplomatic grounds, the Trump administration is reverting to military threats and coercive measures. This approach has failed repeatedly—in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and elsewhere. There is no reason to believe it will succeed in Venezuela.
What Should Actually Happen
If the Trump administration is genuinely concerned about drug trafficking, the data suggests a different approach. Mexico, not Venezuela, is the primary source of drugs entering the United States. Colombia, not Venezuela, is the primary cocaine producer. Addressing these realities would require cooperation with Mexico and Colombia, not military invasion of Venezuela.
If the Trump administration is concerned about China’s influence in Latin America, the answer is not military aggression, which only pushes countries closer to Beijing. The answer is to offer a competing vision—one based on economic partnership, respect for sovereignty, and non-interference in internal affairs.
Instead, the Trump administration appears intent on repeating the mistakes of the past, with Venezuela as the next victim of American military overreach.
Conclusion
Trump’s Venezuela invasion plans are not about drugs. The data is clear: Colombia produces the cocaine, Mexico produces the fentanyl, and Venezuela plays a minor role in either trade. The real motivations are oil—the world’s largest reserves—and geopolitical control against China.
The US military will fail because it is attempting to occupy a country twice the size of Iraq with insufficient forces, against a population that opposes the invasion, in terrain suited to guerrilla warfare.
The result will be another Vietnam, another Iraq, another Afghanistan—a prolonged, costly, and ultimately futile war that destabilizes the region and further damages American credibility.
The data shows that the Americans are doomed to fail in Venezuela. The only question is whether the Trump administration will recognize this reality before thousands of American soldiers and hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans die in a war that should never be fought.
