As the US-China trade war enters a new, high-stakes phase, the latest economic data from Beijing delivers a powerful verdict: China is winning. The country has reported a robust 4.8% GDP growth for the third quarter of 2025, a figure that not only surpasses economists’ expectations but also keeps China firmly on track to meet its annual growth target of “around 5%.” This economic resilience, achieved in the face of relentless US tariffs, exposes the fundamental failure of the Trump administration’s strategy and highlights China’s successful pivot towards greater economic independence.
While President Trump continues to make demands and threaten further tariff hikes, his leverage is rapidly diminishing. China’s strong economic performance, coupled with its strategic dominance in critical sectors, has turned the tables in this economic conflict. The narrative is no longer about if China can withstand the pressure, but about how it has managed to thrive and emerge stronger.
Defying Expectations: A Deep Dive into China’s Economic Strength
China’s economic data for the first three quarters of 2025 paints a picture of remarkable stability and strength. The cumulative GDP growth for this period stands at 5.2%, a testament to the country’s robust economic foundations. The third-quarter growth of 4.8%, while a slight deceleration from the first half of the year, is a clear indication that the economy is performing well above forecasts.
The resilience is broad-based, with all major sectors contributing to the positive outlook:
•Primary Industries: Grew by 3.8% year-over-year.
•Secondary Industry: Expanded by 4.9%.
•Tertiary (Services) Industry: Showed the strongest performance with a 5.4% increase.
These figures demonstrate that China’s economy is not just surviving but is expanding in a balanced and sustainable manner, a far cry from the “tremendous difficulties” President Trump has claimed his tariffs would create.
The Failed US Strategy: A Tale of Miscalculation
The Trump administration’s trade war was predicated on the belief that economic pressure would force China to bend to US demands. However, this strategy has been undermined by two key factors: China’s successful trade diversification and its strategic control over essential resources.
As detailed in a previous analysis, China’s economic resilience and strategic gains have rendered Trump’s trade war a failure. The country has effectively circumnavigated US tariffs by boosting exports to other parts of the world. In September alone, exports to non-US markets surged by an incredible 14.8%, while shipments to the US plummeted by 27%.
Furthermore, China’s dominance in the rare earth minerals market has given it a powerful tool of economic statecraft. As one former Trump administration official noted, China has asserted “the power to forbid any country on Earth from participating in the modern economy.” This strategic advantage, combined with its unwavering economic performance, has left the US with a weakening hand.
Conclusion: A New Economic Reality
The latest GDP figures from China are more than just numbers; they represent a fundamental shift in the global economic landscape. They demonstrate that China has successfully weathered the storm of the trade war and is charting a course towards sustained growth and greater self-reliance. For the United States, the data should serve as a wake-up call. The tariff-based strategy has not only failed to achieve its objectives but has also inflicted significant damage on the US economy.
As the world watches this economic rivalry unfold, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: China is not just a participant in the global economy; it is a power that can shape its own destiny, regardless of external pressures. The 4.8% GDP growth is a clear signal of this new reality.
References
1.SCMP: China reports 4.8% quarterly GDP growth, moving closer to annual target
2.Fortune: China posts 5.2% GDP growth as Trump makes tariff demands
3.Bloomberg: US-China Trade War: Xi Is Winning Against Trump
